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Economy

On profitable banks

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Economy

Tuesday, 01 May 2012 09:59

Well, we didn’t need to look into a crystal ball to expect banks’ earnings to go up. And now that they have, might we suggest the future holds more solvent credit markets, or is that bordering on irrational expectations? It’s a near perfect banking paradox. On the one hand record profits and improved risk management make for the ideal opportunity to stimulate private credit. One the other, earnings owe to reduced provisioning, in turn because of record low advances, and really the bigger a bank nowadays the more it just has to sit where it is and laugh all the way to the, well, bank.

Ideally, the current condition would warrant the government enforcing oversight controls through the market regulator and central bank, ensuring private sector expansion. But a government itself hopelessly addicted to debt, and unable to function without financial injections from across the banking sector, is hardly in a position to rout monies to entrepreneurial activity. And helplessly caught in this logjam we shall remain, unless banks themselves posture proactively.

Whichever way our moneylenders bend, one thing is assured – coming weeks and months are not a bad time to go long banking scrips at the local bourse. (Note: this is not investment advisory space). Improved sectoral earnings will definitely bid up the market, which implies the furious bull run has some time before it plateaus. It will be unfortunate if this period does not see banks doing their real job, advancing credit.
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Pakistan Today


 

Pakistan’s energy crisis major hurdle in economic growth: ADB

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Economy

Thursday, 12 April 2012 09:24

KARACHI: The Asian Development Bank (ADB), in a report released Wednesday, has said that Pakistan’s economy faces a major hurdle in the shape of its domestic energy crisis.

The ADB has identified rising inflation, investment decline, low tax revenue and losses at public-sector enterprises as other factors hindering economic growth.

“The economy continues to be affected by structural problems, including a domestic energy crisis, a precipitous decline in investment, persistently high inflation, and security issues. Budget deficits remain high, driven by substantial subsidies and losses at state-owned enterprises, and tax revenue below target,” says the report.

The ADB sees power as the main constraint for economic growth, stressing for better load-management to minimize commercial losses.

The report adds: “Losses arising from power and gas shortages held down GDP growth by 3–4 per centage points in FY2011 and FY2012. Improved management of power resources could ameliorate predictability of load-shedding to allow the private sector to better schedule work and minimize costs.”

“For every unit of power sold, there is a loss to the sector reflected in the form of subsidies. An outstanding accumulation of PRs220 billion was carried into FY2012, and an additional financing of 1–1.5% of GDP is likely to be required in FY2012.”

Furthermore, the ADB advises reforms in not only the energy sector but also state-owned enterprises, naming Pakistan Railways, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA), and Pakistan Steel Mills as entities suffering the steepest of losses.

“The challenge of improving efficiency and putting these enterprises on a viable commercial footing is formidable. Reforms are needed, including a separation of these enterprises from operational interference by government ministries,” advises the ADB.

The report adds: “The slow growth in recent years was exacerbated by widespread floods in FY2011. Unless progress can be made in resolving these fundamental problems, the growth outlook will stay modest.”
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Dawn News


 

Petrol price hiked by Rs 8.02, CNG by Rs 11.98 per liter

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Economy

Sunday, 01 April 2012 01:49

ISLAMABAD: The Government on Saturday once again increased the price of petrol by a staggering Rs 8.02 and that of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) by 11.98 per liter for region one and by Rs 9.93 for region two, DawnNews reported.

The price of diesel has also been raised by Rs 4.70 per liter. A notification to this effect has been issued.

After the rise, the revised price of petrol has jumped to Rs 105.68 a liter and diesel to Rs 108.16. While, CNG in region one to Rs 88 and in region two has jumped to Rs 80 per liter.

The price of light diesel went up by Rs 5.45 to Rs 99.69 per liter; HOBC by Rs 8.94 to Rs 135.81 and the rate of kerosene oil jacked up by Rs 5.29 to Rs 101.69 a liter.

The revised rates of petroleum products will be effective from Sunday.


 
 

Budgetary support reaching Rs 1 trillion

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Economy

Last Updated on Sunday, 18 March 2012 06:28 Sunday, 18 March 2012 05:30

KARACHI: Borrowing for budgetary support is reaching close to a trillion, which is almost half of the entire revenue target set for the fiscal year 2011-12. The State Bank reported on Wednesday that the government borrowed Rs916 billion for the budgetary support till March 2 since July 1, reflecting weakness of the fiscal position of the government.

The government has set a revenue collection target of Rs1,952 billion for FY-12, and only four months are left in the close of the fiscal year.

Poor economic growth of the previous year had forced the government to rely heavily on borrowing to continue its budgetary programmes, but total budgetary support borrowing for the entire year was to the tune of Rs590 billion, far less than the current borrowing for eight months.

The State Bank also reported that monetary growth remained much less than last year during these eight months.

Higher monetary growth reflects depth of money supply into economy which is good if inflation is not high.

Monetary growth or M2 growth rose by 6.05 per cent during the eight months, much less than 9.36 per cent during the corresponding period of last year.

In terms of amount, M2 growth was of Rs405 billion compared to Rs540 billion in the previous year. However, monetary growth of the entire FY-11 was 15.89 per cent and in terms of amount, it grew by Rs918 billion.

According to analysts, private sector participation in monetary growth was lower due to high discount rate. They were expecting a further significant cut in the monetary policy for February and March.

However, the State Bank kept the discount rate unchanged at 12 per cent, anticipating higher inflation in the coming months.

Inflation once again started rising and may touch 12 per cent at the end of the fiscal year.

“Inflation might cross even 12 per cent as oil prices have multiple impact on economy. It will certainly inflate economy, leaving no chance for cut in discount rate, thus no hope for higher participation of private sector in the near future,” said Mohammad Imran, an analyst on banking sector.

Oil prices have been rising, with rising tension between Iran and Western countries that put sanctions on oil exports from Iran and made its central bank inoperative.

Oil market speculators have been warning that any attack on Iran could push the oil crude prices up to $200 per barrel.

If the predicted oil price comes true, Pakistan would have to face a severe impact and many segments of economy may collapse, said Aamir Aziz, a textile manufacturer and exporter.

He said it would damage prospects of economic growth and the government would have to continuously rely on budgetary borrowing to meet its expenses.
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Gas, fuel shortage creates mass outages

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Economy

Last Updated on Sunday, 18 March 2012 06:29 Sunday, 18 March 2012 02:18

LAHORE: Electricity shortfall rose on Thursday beyond 6,000 megawatt (MW) that is almost 50 per cent of total 13,000MW demand in the country, thus necessitating a 10 to 14 hours loadshedding throughout the country.

According to the Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO), urban feeders suffered more than 10 hours of loadshedding while in rural feeders, there is virtually no electricity.

An official said the company feared that the situation could be chaotic if there was no improvement in the next 24 hours, and, to make the matter worse, there were no signs for improvement.

The generation is suffering on three accounts – fuel, gas and water.

The official said fuel supplies were eaten up by ever-increasing circular debt while two major dams were empty and river flows were down to 10-year low. There was no gas supply to power houses and no money for alternate fuel, said the official, adding that the three factors had resulted into exceptionally low generation, which even during the peak hours – from 6pm to 11pm – came down to a paltry 8,600MW.

“The decisive drop has come from hydel generation, which has dropped from 5,000MW last week to a paltry 1,000MW on Thursday,” says another official of the company.

The Tarbella Dam received only 17,000 cusecs of water and the Mangla lake 14,000 cusecs on Thursday. Outflows of the dams were barely enough to generate around 1,000MW, said the official.

More than half of the country was without power at any given point of time on Thursday, said the official, adding that one should not forget that it is still winter. Once the mercury starts rising, the loadshedding would go up correspondingly.

The company had to shut down some of its inefficient plants because of their Rs25 per unit price. It brought down thermal generation from over 2,500MW to around 1,200MW, creating a shortfall of 1,300MW on this head alone.

To massive add to the company woes is the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) which was supplied over 700MW by PEPCO, despite the fact that it is a private company that is supposed to generate its own power. The PEPCO official says the KESC does not pay its bills, and adds to circular debt, squeezes fuel supplies.

But the company is helpless as the government does not want to snap KESC supplies, laments the company official.


 
 

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