US planes violate Pak airspace over NWA

Defence

Wednesday, 29 February 2012 22:44

American war planes violated Pak airspace Wednesday evening in tribal area bordering Afghanistan.

The US planes got into the Pakistani airspace at 4:15pm and stayed over the Pakistani area for at least fifteen minutes, sources said.

The airspace violation took place in the Loda Mandi area of North Waziristan.

The incident comes at a time when Pak-US ties are already passing through a rough patch owing to unilateral US policies and the Salala checkposts attack in which 24 Pakistani soldiers were killed in Nato airstrike.

Pakistan Air Force Receives New, Upgraded F-16s from Turkey

Defence

Sunday, 26 February 2012 20:34

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Islamabad - The Pakistan Air Force received the last of 18 new F-16 C/D Block 52 fighters from Lockheed Martin in early February. Accompanying the aircraft on its delivery flight were two Pakistan Air Force F-16 A Block 15s that have undergone the mid-life update process in the U.S. A few days later, the PAF also accepted the first of its F-16s to undergo an avionics and structure upgrade in Turkey.

Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) has been selected to do the work on 41 PAF F-16s, in a program named Peace Drive II. Modification of the first aircraft began in October 2010 and the last should be finished in 2014. TAI is also providing training to 72 PAF technicians, so that they can subsequently work alongside its workforce on upgrading the F-16s.

TAI was established in 1984 to coproduce F-16s for the Turkish air force, and is now pitching its expertise to other F-16 operators. It has done structural and avionics upgrades on the Royal Jordanian Air Force’s F-16s and is now modernizing 175 Turkish F-16s.

Aabpara auditions

Defence

Last Updated on Saturday, 25 February 2012 09:35 Saturday, 25 February 2012 08:46

 By Wajahat S Khan

It's appointment time at the Fortress on 7th Avenue. Pakistan's premier intelligence arm, the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence, is transitioning through a change of the guard. After an unprecedented two extensions at the helm of the ISI, infantryman (or as he prefers it, Piffer) Lt. Gen. Ahmad Shuja Pasha is getting ready for golfing. Or is he?

The deadline for the switchover is March 18th, the day Pasha says goodbye to his Aabpara staff of at least six sub-directorates ('Analysis', 'Counter', 'Internal', 'Media', 'Special' & 'Technical')

and goes packing. Assuming he will either not be offered an extension (which has to officially come from the office of the prime ninister), nor accept an extension if it is offered (which may be likely as it will make him look good and the PM/government seem thankful and happy), the DG-I (preferred again, for only civilians call him DG-ISI) will be replaced by a man who will have to be battle-ready without the luxury of any 'settling in' period.

That's because even though Pakistan is always on the brink-of-something, the country's intelligence calendar for 2012 (which in no particular order includes: the Qatar talks with the US/Afghans/Taliban, the upcoming general elections, the Missing Persons/Memogate/Abbottabad inquiries, the Balochistan peace process, resumption of ties with US/NATO/ISAF and trade versus water security with India) will not allow any breathing space to the newcomer. Come the ides of March, Pakistan's new ISI chief will not only have to hit the ground running; he will also have to implement a framework of consistency and success that keeps his army and its Chief of Army Staff, Gen. AshfaqKayani, stable till the COAS himself goes golfing in late 2013.

Whose Call is it Anyway?

As for the process of selection, the official bit about the prime minister deciding after being presented a list of names by acting Defence Secretary Nargis Sethi (which he will then talk over with President Asif Ali Zardari), well, that's the stuff pipe-dreams are made of. Ultimately, and realistically, the call is only Gen. Kayani's to make. So what is Chaklala's top gun thinking? And in Kayani's deep and nicotine-infested mind, what does his new ISI chief require?

Consistency (because that's the way it works)

"The only thing harder than putting a new idea into the military mind is getting an old idea out of it". So said the English soldier and historian, B.H. Liddel Hart - and he said it before the same chaps who had started WWI started WWII.

Of course, militaries are conservative in their policies. But they're even more conservative about themselves. Especially considering Pakistan's multiple fronts of civil and international conflict and the tight corner its army finds itself in, Islamabad's 7thAvenue spymaster will have to be in a close synch with Rawalpindi's GHQ king. Thus, there is little room today for a renaissance man in Aabpara.

Less than Conservative (but Tactical about Terror)

That's not just a personal qualification, but a professional one as well. Kayani will look for a man who's proven his credentials either reputedly or experientially for being familiar with the terrain and the command, staff and operational requirements for continuing Pakistan's version of the 'War on Terror'. That means either field experience in FATA/Khyber-Pakhtunkwha (probably as the General Officer Commanding of a frontline division), hands-on work with the Directorate of Military Operations or even the Directorate of Military Intelligence, and/or the right sub-directorates at the ISI.

The Pasha Formula

The proof is already in the pudding. Kayani chose Pasha for a variety of reasons, but the leading among them (barring the rumours about Pasha being green-lit by the Americans) is that Pasha had served, just like Kayani, as the Director General Military Operations (DGMO), a stint from 2006 to 2008 where he had overseen the entire ambit of military engagements across the country. His predecessor, Lt. Gen. NadeemTaj, did not enjoy such a critical operational command (rather, he was a bit of a Musharraf hanger-on) and was promptly removed by Kayani soon after the COAS attained his four stars.

So, besides both being infantrymen, having similar offices and experience, Kayani and Pasha have thus implemented the former's strategy to build and enhance the operational linkages between the ISI and the army - damaged greatly by the politicization of the ISI since the Zulfikar Ali Bhutto years and the founding of the ISI's notorious 'Political Cell'. Essentially, and between their bouts, Kayani and Pasha have tried to recreate the ISI as a 'fighting arm' of GHQ.

Thus, just like the infantry, the armoured corps, the artillery and other supporting arms, the ISI today also provides critical input as an enforcer of the army's operational policies (though it does not have the formations or the firepower of the other arms). In a way, this is exactly what the ISI was founded to do: provide intelligence and support for war. It's political role, though officially diminished, ends with a question mark.

Effectively, Kayani, a former DGMO and DG-I himself, has tried to create Pasha the spymaster in his own image. With a new spymaster ready to get appointed, he just might repeat that move.

Faculty vs Presentability (because the Americans are important)

Looks will matter, but so will substance. However, interpersonal abilities may or may not reflect in the professional skills of the new DG-I. Both Kayani and Pasha are introverts who have depended on building personal trust with their counterparts. Also, they let their propaganda arms do the talking, so do not expect a Hameed Gul type of hard-baller in the mix.

But do remember that the new DG-I will probably serve as chief negotiator for the army in the ongoing Qatar talks, and that means he will most certainly need to connect with the US State Department, CIA, CENTCOM, NATO, ISAF, the Afghans and maybe their ANSF (Afghan National Security Forces) and NDS (National Directorate of Security, Kabul's intelligence arm), and yes, even the Taliban and their sympathizers. That's a lot of press, a lot of talking and a lot of diplomacy. Kayani will definitely need a man of substance who's a wheeler-dealer as well.

The Probables

The names that have been leaked to the press so far indicate a bifurcated set of choices for the COAS to make: Kayani will either go for someone who has worked closely with him (on his staff) or someone who knows the ropes (and has already been at the intel game), or maybe both. But experience versus intimacy will count, as will other oblique qualifications.

The Senior
Lt. Gen. Rashad Mahmood

Arm: Baluch Regiment (same regiment as Kayani)

Current Job: Commander, IV Corps, Lahore (a choice posting, which means he's in the boss' very, very good books)

The Spin: Mahmood got the creme de la creme gig of the Lahore Corps right after serving as a deputy DG ISI as a two-star.

The Complication: He's not in the batch of three-star generals who will retire with Kayani in 2013, but he will reach his retirement age after only a couple of years at Aabpara.

The Qualification: That means the new COAS (who, if he takes over from Kayani, will assume office in 2013) will have to see Mahmood off soon after he himself gets the top job. In this way, Mahmood's tenure will be short and sweet, as he will neatly fit in as Kayani's DG-I (and retire soon after Kayani) and not worry the new COAS (who will thus quickly install his own man on 7th Avenue). Intra-institutionally, this would be perceived as an unselfish win-win for Kayani and the rest of the crew, and shall most certainly be appreciated by the not-so-round table of Pakistan's Khaki Knights. Also, the Americans could be satisfied as Mahmood has intel/counter-terrorism experience.

The Risk: If the ISI continues its trend (or keeps up its need) for its Director Generals' extensions, Mahmood, due to his foreseeably short two-year stint, is a risky proposition. That's because the incumbent democratic government in office at the time of his retirement (and/or the rest of the country) may or may not be in a mood for granting yet another DG-I another year.

Experience vs Intimacy: Both matter. With his stint at the ISI and his hot-shot Corps command, Mahmood hasn't gotten this far without the favour or the good impression of the COAS. But he hasn't worked closely with the chief.

The Contender
Lt. Gen. Mohammad Zaheerul Islam

Arm: Punjab Regiment (which is infantry, same arm as Kayani)

Current Job: Commander, V Corps, Karachi (also a cushy posting, which means he's one of Kayani's favourites)

The Spin: Like Mahboob, Islam also served in the ISI as a two-star deputy DG (reportedly DG-Internal, dealing with domestic and counter-intelligence issues) before his promotion to the rank of a three-star. Thus, it's no coincidence that Islam also oversaw Karachi during the turbulence of 2011, which claimed hundreds of lives in 'target killings'.

The Complication: Islam retires after Kayani as well as Mahboob, which means that he could (or could not) pose complications for the next COAS (who will still see him as Kayani's choice, not his own). That's not much of an issue, for if Islam is not appreciated by the new boss, he could easily be slotted into a Principal Staff Officer slot as a reward, or maybe get another Corps command (though the latter is unlikely).

The Qualification: Pretty much the same as Mahboob's. The trajectories of both Corps Commanders (ISI posts followed by important Corps appointments) are similar, but Islam also hails from a prominent military family.

Experience vs Intimacy: With his ISI background and his performance in Karachi, experience will surely count. But Islam has not worked on the COAS's staff.

The Specialist
Lt. Gen. Muhammad Asif

Arm: Sind Regiment (which is infantry, same arm as Kayani)

Current Job: Director General Joint Staff (DG-JS), Joint Staff Headquarters, Chaklala (not the most connected of portfolios)

The Spin: Asif served as the Defense Attache to Moscow for over two years. Even more importantly, he was appointed as Kayani's first DG-MI (Director General Military Intelligence, often joked about as 'intra-services intelligence', which it literally is). With his current stint at the Joint Staff Headquarters, Asif has also interacted quite often with the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) of the Peoples Republic of China.

The Complication: Though they suffer from overlaps, the MI is a very different animal from the ISI. Also, Asif has been the GOC of Sialkot, not necessarily a FATA/KPK-centric division.

The Qualification: Asif could be the 'readjustment' candidate. If Kayani is seriously thinking about 'looking east' and building his military into a non-aligned (vis-a-vis the US) entity that is looking to build regional ties as well as streamlining the discrepancies between Pakistan's three services - including the critical procedural and operational overlaps between the MI and the ISI - then Asif, with his Joint Staff background, is the man for the job. After all, the first round of Pak-China Staff Talks (where PRC and Pakistani brass actually huddle over the future) was started under his watch.

The Risk: The Americans might not see Asif as the right fit for what they need.

Experience vs Intimacy: Probably neither. Asif has no ISI experience, and a JSHQ posting generally indicates a 'not-a-buddy but-not-a-bad-guy' status with the GHQ.

The Guardian
Lt. Gen. Javed Iqbal

Arm: Frontier Force Regiment (infantry, same arm as Kayani and same regiment as Pasha)

Current Job: Adjutant General (AG), GHQ (a stint that keeps him close to the COAS)

The Spin: Schoolmate (though junior) of Kayani's from Military College Jhelum. Also, like Kayani and Pasha, Iqbal has served as DGMO, which makes him operationally qualified, just like Pasha and Kayani before him, for the ISI's increasingly important role as a 'force multiplier' in the military engagements in FATA/KPK and even Balochistan.

The Complication: Just two weeks before the biggest intelligence failure in the country's history and the Osama Bin Laden-centric Operation Neptune Spear by US Navy SEAL Team Six - Javed Iqbal was the DGMO of Pakistan Army. But by May 2, 2011, he had been promoted to the very 'ear-of-the-chief' post of Adjutant General. After the OBL raid, Iqbal was also immediately tasked with an inquiry by the COAS about the failures that led to the raid. All of this means three things: that Javed Iqbal is very close to Kayani; that Javed Iqbal is very lucky; and that Javed Iqbal knows more about the OBL raid, both as former DGMO and inquirer, than anyone else.

The Qualification: Ever heard of the Fauji Foundation's Committee of Administration? No? Well, according the Foundation's publications, the COA is the "policy board of the organization. It is responsible for defining the strategic direction of the Foundation without its involvement in the day to day functioning." Lt. Gen. Javed Iqbal is on this committee. He's also the Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Askari Bank. He's also got an MSc in Strategic Studies from Quaid-e-Azam University. That means that Iqbal is more than a good old boy. He is, literally, the army's premier manager. Not due to retire for another three years, Javed Iqbal may well be Kayani's personal favorite, a man who could very easily transition from the high risks of managing field operations to the risk-management of the army's billions. If he is appointed DG-I, expect him to enhance not just the ambit but also the structure and systems of the agency.

The Risk: If he is shipped of to Aabpara, then after the retirement (or maybe even promotion to four-stars) of the current Chief of General Staff, Lt. Gen. Waheed Arshad, GHQ might miss an able administrator like Javed Iqbal.

Experience versus Intimacy: Iqbal is definitely close to the COAS. And with two division commands as GOC and the DGMO gig, he is as, if not more, experienced than Pasha when the latter assumed control of the Fortress on 7th Avenue.

The Wildcards
Three Alternative Choices

Alternatively, Kayani could make a move out of left field. As Pasha retires and opens up a three-star slot, Kayani may opt to not rock the boat with Lt. Generals. Instead, he could go for someone younger, more dynamic, or even a better fit, and promote him before appointing him to head the agency.

The three two-star names which have been speculated in the press are Maj. Gen. Raza Muhammad, Maj. Gen. Sahibzada Isfandiyar Ali Khan Pataudi, and Maj. Gen. Naushad Kayani. The appointment of either Pataudi or Kayani (both having stellar US Army War College backgrounds) could complicate life as they are not up for promotion in March, and several major generals would have to be superseded after such an action (not a popular move as several two-stars were already superseded last fall and thus made redundant by the COAS).

The most-possible-scenario wildcard is the senior two-star in the running, Maj. Gen. Raza: an old-school infantryman with a son-of-the-soil reputation in the army and a crucial intelligence post that is coupled with a divisional command. Enabled by his low profile and warhorse attitude, the seniority-gap with the COAS could well be the sort of matchup Raza offers to Kayani for being Pakistan's new spymaster.

The matrix has many choices. There are few patterns and trends. The decision rests with one chain-smoker. Thus, the Aabpara Auditions begin.

Khan is a former Harvard Shorenstein Fellow, an Asia Society Global Young Leader, and investigates for broadcast/print/social media. He is a senior anchor at Aaj TV, a columnist at The News and a senior reporter at The Friday Times. Twitter @wajskhan, This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

US presses Pakistan to allow intelligence bases near Iran

Defence

Last Updated on Saturday, 25 February 2012 08:44 Saturday, 25 February 2012 08:40